Non-stationary characteristics and causes of extreme precipitation in a desert steppe in Inner Mongolia, China 后印本

摘要: Recent years have witnessed increasingly frequent extreme precipitation events, especially in desert steppes in the semi-arid and arid transition zone. Focusing on a desert steppe in western-central Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, this study aimed to determine the principle time-varying pattern of extreme precipitation and its dominant climate forcings during the period 1988–2017. Based on the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) modeling framework, we developed the best time-dependent models for the extreme precipitation series at nine stations, as well as the optimized non-stationary models with large-scale climate indices (including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)) as covariates. The results indicated that extreme precipitation remained stationary at more than half of the stations (Hailisu, Wuyuan, Dengkou, Hanggin Rear Banner, Urad Front Banner, and Yikewusu), while linear and non-linear time-varying patterns were quantitatively identified at the other stations (Urad Middle Banner, Linhe, and Wuhai). These non-stationary behaviors of extreme precipitation were mainly reflected in the mean value of extreme precipitation. The optimized non-stationary models performed best, indicating the significant influences of large-scale climate indices on extreme precipitation. In particular, the NAO, NPO, SO, and AMO remained as covariates and significantly influenced the variations in the extreme precipitation regime. Our findings have important reference significance for gaining an in-depth understanding of the driving mechanism of the non-stationary behavior of extreme precipitation and enable advanced predictions of rainstorm risks.