A Model for the Susceptibility Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods Based on Physical Processes and the Analytic Hierarchy Process Based on Physical Processes

摘要: Objective: The study aims to develop a susceptibility assessment model for glacial lake outbursts based on physical processes and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), to quantitatively and objectively evaluate the threats of glacial lake outbursts. This is in response to the challenges posed by the expansion of glacial lake areas and the increase in their numbers under global warming.
Methods: The research introduces the concept of "instantaneous triggering body mechanical energy transfer efficiency" from the perspective of mechanical energy transfer and transformation. Impact indicators are categorized into three major groups, with mechanical energy used to decouple and assign values to each indicator. An E/F calculation model is constructed, aligning with the safety factor concept in reliability theory, and the model is validated as a susceptibility assessment tool using the AHP method. The study also summarizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process Based on Physical Processes from the model construction and applies it to build a landslide susceptibility model, thereby verifying its generalization capability.
Results: The study finds that the new model can effectively assess the susceptibility of glacial lake outbursts, offering a novel perspective to understand the dynamic changes of such events. Key indicators include the mechanical energy of instantaneous triggering bodies, the mechanical energy of lake water, and the critical failure Newton force of the ice dam. Analysis indicates that the model is highly universal in assessing susceptibility and provides a more comprehensive and systematic framework compared to traditional methods. The Analytic Hierarchy Process Based on Physical Processes demonstrates a certain level of generalization ability.
Limitations: Potential limitations of the study include the difficulty in accurately obtaining some parameters and the need for further validation of the generalization ability of the Analytic Hierarchy Process Based on Physical Processes. Additionally, the accuracy of the model may be constrained by data quality and monitoring technology.
Conclusions: The model proposed in this study has good applicability and universal significance, capable of providing a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation. Compared to existing research, the uniqueness of this work lies in its combination of quantitative methods based on physical processes with AHP, offering a new tool and analytical method for more accurately identifying and assessing disaster risks.